The Metalog Distributions

About the Author

Tom Keelin is an American economist, engineer, decision analyst, and mathematician. He has combined a professional career in decision analysis practice with multidisciplinary innovations.

As a management consultant, Tom has supervised or led more than 150 strategic advisory assignments with more than 80 companies from Fortune 500 firms to venture-backed startups. As board member and Worldwide Managing Director of the Strategic Decision Group, Tom supervised or led dozens of client strategy engagements over two decades.  From one such engagement, he co-authored the 1998 Harvard Business Review article “How SmithKline Beecham Makes Better Resource Allocation Decisions”, which put forth a portfolio-management standard that was adopted across life-sciences, oil and gas, and other industries.  

Tom is also a founder and Managing Partner of Keelin Reeds Partners, a consulting firm that provides strategy and decision analytic services to venture- and early-public-stage companies. Previously, with Decision Focus, Inc, Tom developed the award-winning Over/Under Capacity Planning methodology, which addressed demand uncertainty in electric power system planning. Tom’s Over/Under model was widely adopted by more than 100 U.S. utilities and by regulatory commissions in many states. Beyond training clients in its use, Tom served as an expert witness on how to recognize quality in decision-making related to multi-billion dollar nuclear and coal generation capacity investments.

As an engineer and catch-and-release fly fisherman, Tom pioneered independent Fly Fishing Research, publishing numerous original results including the equations of fly line sink rate in still water and fly depth in moving water.

As a methematician, Tom recognized a practical need for more flexible and easier-to-use continuous probability distributions. He co-invented quantile-parameterized distributions and then invented the metalog distributions to meet this need.

Tom is a Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals, and a founder and director of the Decision Education Foundation, a not-for-profit organization that helps youth learn good decision skills for life. Tom holds three degrees from Stanford University: BA in Economics and MS and PhD in Engineering-Economic Systems.